Trump polling better than 2020 and 2016

HUNT VALLEY, Md. (TNND) — We are now just three weeks away from the 2024 presidential election – and once again, the two candidates are neck-and-neck.

According to 538 polling averages, Vice President Kamala Harris has just a little over a two-percentage point lead over former President Donald Trump – 48.5% versus 46.1%.

However, trailing in the polls didn’t stop Trump in 2016, and he’s currently trailing by less of a margin than he was in both the 2016 and 2020 elections.

Although polls have their documented issues, and they’ve been wrong before, the three-week outlook might just be positive for the former president.

For context, in 2016, according to the same 538 averaging on Oct. 15, Trump trailed Hillary Clinton by more than five percentage points – 45.3% vs 39.3%.

In 2020 on Oct. 15, Trump trailed President Joe Biden by nearly ten percentage points – 52.4% versus 41.9%.

Now, that’s national polling. The winner of this election will be determined by the swing states.

In all of those except for Georgia, Trump is polling better than he did four and eight years ago. Here’s the breakdown, using 538 and RealClear Polling averages:

Arizona: 2016: +0.7 / 2020: -3.7 / 2024: +1.6

Georgia: 2016: +5.3 / 2020: -1.2 / 2024: +1.0

Michigan: 2016: -11.4 / 2020: -7.8 / 2024: -0.8

Nevada: 2016: -1.6 / 2020: -6.4 / 2024: -0.5

North Carolina: 2016: -3.3 / 2020: -3.1 / 2024: +1.0

Pennsylvania: 2016: -8.2 / 2020: -6.9 / 2024: -0.7

Wisconsin: 2016: -6.0 / 2020: -7.6 / 2024: -0.5

Not to mention, Trump outperformed his poll numbers in 2016 and 2020.

Pollsters argued models underestimated turnout, or that Trump supporters either lied in their survey responses or just refused to fill them out.

But, not only is Trump performing better now in the polls than before in the ones that underestimated him, the momentum is decidedly moving in his favor as of late.

Harris was riding the wave of momentum both after President Biden dropped out and after her debate with Trump. Now, her popularity is declining in more recent polling.

Analysts say it could be because Harris isn’t differentiating herself from Biden much, and doesn’t represent much of a change from his administration. Plus, voters view Trump’s presidency more favorably than Biden’s.

Still, Trump has to convince voters his rhetoric and behavior won’t get in the way of his governing.

Whether this election will be like 2016 or 2020 or completely different remains to be seen.