Immigration, border move up priority list for voters as lawmakers search for a deal

WASHINGTON (TND) — Immigration and the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border are moving up priority lists for voters in the 2024 presidential election as senators try to negotiate a border security bill and House lawmakers are moving forward with the impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

Voters are starting to reshuffle their priorities when considering who they will vote for in November, according to a handful of public opinion surveys released this week.

An Emerson College poll released on Tuesday found concerns about the economy have declined in the new year, with 29% choosing it as their top issue, a 9% drop since December. Immigration moved up the list, with 21% of voters saying it was their top concern in a 10% increase since last month.

Republican voters were more likely to say immigration was their top concern than Democrats and independents, who are still prioritizing the economy. Both signal potential trouble for President Joe Biden, as more than half of the voters worried about the economy break for former President Donald Trump, and immigration voters support Trump by an even wider margin, 81% to 14%.

A Harvard CAPS-Harris poll released on Monday found immigration was the top policy concern for voters, with 35% ranking it No. 1 over inflation and the economy. Immigration increased by 7% from the previous month’s poll, another example of how the issue is permeating among voters as border crossings and safety concerns remain an issue.

The poll also found a broad majority of voters believe the situation at the border is getting worse. Sixty-four percent of respondents said conditions at the border are getting worse, while 23% said they’re staying the same. Only 13% said conditions at the border are improving.

The polling comes as Biden and Mayorkas are trying to negotiate a deal with Senate Republicans to enhance border security as part of a broader package that would also include military aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. Details of the bill have not been released yet, but lawmakers involved in the negotiations have said they are hoping to release text this week.

“Biden's really walking a tightrope because not everyone within his own party is in favor of his seeming reversal on the border,” said David McLennan, a professor of political science and director of the Meredith Poll. “People know Trump's position on it, and he has been touting it since he entered politics. And by Biden's relative silence on it up until just the last few weeks puts him at a real disadvantage in terms of the electoral issue.”

Biden has challenged Congress to pass a bill targeting immigration and the border, vowing that he would sign a bill if they passed it and gave him the authority to shut down the border.

“I’ve done all I can do. Just give me the power. I’ve asked from the very day I got into office. Give me the Border Patrol. Give me the people — give me the people, the judges. Give me the people who can stop this and make it work right,” Biden said Tuesday.

Negotiations have been ongoing for weeks, but the final result will face a challenging road ahead to the president’s desk. Republicans in both chambers, despite not having the text to go over, have said the bill does not go far enough and House Speaker Mike Johnson has suggested a Senate deal would likely be dead on arrival.

House Republicans have pushed for stricter border measures that resemble H.R. 2 that includes multiple policies Biden and other Democrats view as too harsh and restrictive. GOP lawmakers have also argued that Biden already has executive authority to deal with the border and he is choosing not to exercise it and accused Democrats of ignoring the issue for years during a mark-up hearing for impeachment articles against Mayorkas.

“Why did we pass the legislation?” Johnson said referencing H.R. 2. “We passed it because the president has refused to use his executive authority to reverse the catastrophe that he used his executive authority to create.”

Republicans are also facing pressure from Trump, the party’s frontrunner for the presidential nomination, not to pass any Senate deal. Johnson has denied that he is trying to kill the bill because of Trump’s campaign but said he had talked to him “at length.”

“They are using this horrific Senate Bill as a way of being able to put the BORDER DISASTER onto the shoulders of the Republicans. The Democrats BROKE THE BORDER, they should fix it. NO LEGISLATION IS NEEDED, IT’S ALREADY THERE!!!” Trump wrote in a post on his social media site on Monday.

The political rhetoric from both sides of the aisle is an example of how election year politics are shaping the debate around the bill and have historically gotten in the way of reforming the U.S. immigration system.

“With the House not moving on it, it’s ‘what could have been’ it's kind of like Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown one more time,” McLennan said.