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Polls tighten, shift towards Trump as Election Day nears


In this combination of photos taken in Pennsylvania, Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign event, Aug. 18, 2024, in Rochester, left, and Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign event, Aug. 19, 2024, in York. (AP Photo)
In this combination of photos taken in Pennsylvania, Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign event, Aug. 18, 2024, in Rochester, left, and Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign event, Aug. 19, 2024, in York. (AP Photo)
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The latest poll from the Wall Street Journal has former President Donald Trump up by two points over Vice President Kamala Harris. It's a flip from their August poll that showed Harris with a 2-point lead.

Multiple polling averages show a tightening of the race through three weeks of October.

Real Clear Politics had Harris with a 2-point lead Oct. 1st, down to 0.2 now. The New York Times average went from a 4-point Harris lead to a 1-point Harris lead this month.Decision Desk HQ flipped their prediction from Oct. 1 when they gave Harris a 55% chance of winning. They now give the edge to Trump at 52%.

Experts believe two things might be at play: ads are working, and Harris has been out on a media blitz, which has caused more people to solidify an opinion on her and the campaign.

I think Kamala Harris has hurt herself with her strategies, her rhetorical strategies throughout. She doesn't appear to be interested in answering any questions well," said Towson University Political Professor Emeritus Richard Vatz.

Polls from crucial swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan have also shifted to or have been locked in virtual dead heats.

“You're worried if you're in either campaign, because this could really go either way. And that's why we see the candidates really hammering in on those swing states," said George Washington University Political Professor Todd Belt.

The latest Wall Street Journal poll also found that more voters think Trump is “too extreme” by a 49% to 39% tally as opposed to Harris. 48% of those surveyed also said Trump was a "danger to the country" compared to just 43% saying that about Harris.The Vice President appears to be using that feeling in her closing arguments, agreeing with Trump’s former Chief of Staff that Trump is a "fascist."

“I think of it as, as he's just putting out a 911 call to the American people understand what could happen if Donald Trump were back in the White House," Harris said during part of her CNN town hall this week in Pennsylvania.

Polling has gotten increasingly difficult with how divided voters have become. A majority of polls continue to fall within the margin of error, meaning either candidate could actually be in the lead.


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